SARS-CoV-2 Variants Associated with Vaccine Breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through Summer 2021.

The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here, we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed 3-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of1.25-3.18). This study thus overviews viral evolution and vaccine breakthroughs in the Delaware Valley and introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of breakthrough variants against a changing background. IMPORTANCE SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective at reducing viral infection, hospitalization and death. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been widely observed, raising the question of whether particular viral variants or viral mutations are associated with breakthrough. Here, we report analysis of 2621 surveillance isolates from people diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley in southeastern Pennsylvania, allowing rigorous comparison to 159 vaccine breakthrough case specimens. Our best estimate is a 3-fold enrichment for some lineages of delta among breakthroughs, and enrichment of a notable spike substitution, N501Y. We introduce statistical methods that should be widely useful for evaluating vaccine breakthroughs and other viral phenotypes.

A natural history museum visitor survey of perception, attitude and knowledge (PAK) of microbes and antibiotics.

A kiosk-based survey at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City in 2016-2018 allowed us to assess public knowledge of antibiotics and public attitudes toward microbes in museum goers. Over 22,000 visitors from 172 countries and territories answered several carefully designed questions about microbes and antibiotics. These visitors also entered age, gender, and country demographic data that allowed for stratification along these demographic and geographic divisions. Because museum goers are likely to be better informed about these and other science-based topics, the results described here can set a potential upper bound for public knowledge on these topics. Surprisingly, the results of our analysis of museum goers' answers about microbes and antibiotics indicate a substantial lack of familiarity with both topics. For example, overall only about 50% of respondents can correctly identify penicillin as an antibiotic and less than 50% of museum visitors view microbes as beneficial. The results described here suggest that we are perhaps off target with our educational efforts in this area and that a major shift in approach toward more basic microbial topics is warranted in our educational efforts.

Metagenomic Next-Generation Sequencing (mNGS): SARS-CoV-2 as an Example of the Technology's Potential Pediatric Infectious Disease Applications.

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) has emerged as a potentially powerful tool in clinical diagnosis, hospital epidemiology, microbial evolutionary biology, and studies of host-pathogen interaction. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic provides a framework for demonstrating the applications of this technology in each of these areas. In this Supplement, we review applications of mNGS within the discipline of pediatric infectious diseases.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Diversity Revealed by Rapid Whole-Genome Sequence Typing.

Discrete classification of SARS-CoV-2 viral genotypes can identify emerging strains and detect geographic spread, viral diversity, and transmission events. We developed a tool (GNU-based Virus IDentification [GNUVID]) that integrates whole-genome multilocus sequence typing and a supervised machine learning random forest-based classifier. We used GNUVID to assign sequence type (ST) profiles to all high-quality genomes available from GISAID. STs were clustered into clonal complexes (CCs) and then used to train a machine learning classifier. We used this tool to detect potential introduction and exportation events and to estimate effective viral diversity across locations and over time in 16 US states. GNUVID is a highly scalable tool for viral genotype classification (https://github.com/ahmedmagds/GNUVID) that can quickly classify hundreds of thousands of genomes in a way that is consistent with phylogeny. Our genotyping ST/CC analysis uncovered dynamic local changes in ST/CC prevalence and diversity with multiple replacement events in different states, an average of 20.6 putative introductions and 7.5 exportations for each state over the time period analyzed. We introduce the use of effective diversity metrics (Hill numbers) that can be used to estimate the impact of interventions (e.g., travel restrictions, vaccine uptake, mask mandates) on the variation in circulating viruses. Our classification tool uncovered multiple introduction and exportation events, as well as waves of expansion and replacement of SARS-CoV-2 genotypes in different states. GNUVID classification lends itself to measures of ecological diversity, and, with systematic genomic sampling, it could be used to track circulating viral diversity and identify emerging clones and hotspots.

Jumping a Moving Train: SARS-CoV-2 Evolution in Real Time.

The field of molecular epidemiology responded to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with an unrivaled amount of whole viral genome sequencing. By the time this sentence is published we will have well surpassed 1.5 million whole genomes, more than 4 times the number of all microbial whole genomes deposited in GenBank and 35 times the total number of viral genomes. This extraordinary dataset that accrued in near real time has also given us an opportunity to chart the global and local evolution of a virus as it moves through the world population. The data itself presents challenges that have never been dealt with in molecular epidemiology, and tracking a virus that is changing so rapidly means that we are often running to catch up. Here we review what is known about the evolution of the virus, and the critical impact that whole genomes have had on our ability to trace back and track forward the spread of lineages of SARS-CoV-2. We then review what whole genomes have told us about basic biological properties of the virus such as transmissibility, virulence, and immune escape with a special emphasis on pediatric disease. We couch this discussion within the framework of systematic biology and phylogenetics, disciplines that have proven their worth again and again for identifying and deciphering the spread of epidemics, though they were largely developed in areas far removed from infectious disease and medicine.

Comparative Analysis of Emerging B.1.1.7+E484K SARS-CoV-2 Isolates.

We report the genome of a B.1.1.7+E484K severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 from Southeastern Pennsylvania and compare it with all high-coverage B.1.1.7+E484K genomes (n = 235) available. Analyses showed the existence of at least 4 distinct clades of this variant circulating in the United States and the possibility of at least 59 independent acquisitions of the E484K mutation.